Health & Medicine

WU researchers create a SEIR mathematical model to forecast the number of people infected with COVID-19

Walailak University researchers have created a mathematical model to forecast the decrease in the number of COVID-19 infections under the conditions of vaccinations with a 20-100% efficacy.

Dr. Kiattisak Prathom and Asst. Prof. Dr. Phitchayapak Wintachai, lecturers and researchers from the School of Science, worked together on a research project called “Stability Analysis of SEIR Model Related to Efficiency of Vaccines for COVID-19 Situation.” The study uses SEIR mathematical models to predict the number of COVID-19 cases under the conditions of vaccinations with varying efficiencies.

The need for such a study became apparent during the severe COVID-19 outbreaks in the United States and India, when there was not yet a vaccine for COVID-19. The researchers used data from the two countries to forecast the number of infections after vaccine availability. They relied on a well-known model called the SEIR model which has 4 components: susceptible population (S), exposed population (E), infectious population (I), and recovered population (R). The key variables are the rate of vaccination per day and the efficacy of the vaccine.

Their research shows that whether there is a vaccine or not, the disease will be an epidemic, but the severity and number of infections will not be more than 0.06% of the population. If a vaccine is at least 20% effective, and there is a 0.1% daily vaccination rate, it will reduce the R0 (the basic reproductive number), which indicates the severity of infection, and the epidemic will be under control within five months. Without vaccines for this pandemic, the model shows that a small percent of the population will suffer from the disease in the long term.

“However, if the vaccine is 60-70% effective and has an injection rate of 1% per day, the epidemic will be under control within four months with no more than 0.06% of the population being infected. More effective vaccines and higher injection rates will further reduce the number of infected,” Dr. Kiattisak said.

 

Rewritten from Thai by Uraiwan Angkanawisut

Source: https://www.wu.ac.th/th/news/19786


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